STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 1/30/11
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*** #815 DUKE (-9, O/U 143) @ #816 ST JOHNS ***
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Duke's last non-conference loss came in front of a sellout crowd in the final weekend of last January against a Big East opponent. Exactly one year later, the third-ranked Blue Devils face that set of circumstances Sunday at Madison Square Garden, where they take on a St. John's team completing a grueling run of eight straight games against Top 25 teams. Duke (19-1) has won 20 in a row outside the ACC since an 89-77 loss at then-No. 7 Georgetown on Jan. 30, 2010. That contest was played in front of a sellout crowd at the Verizon Center that featured President Barack Obama.
The Blue Devils have won seven straight over St. John's (11-8). The Red Storm, whose top five scorers are seniors, have lost three straight overall and five of seven during this daunting stretch. Duke will be the highest-ranked opponent they face in the eight-game span. "Sunday will be another test for us to go out of conference and it will be sold out at Madison Square Garden," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "St. John's has an older team. They didn't play well in their last game, but they'll be ready to play us." Duke has won four straight since its lone loss, 66-61 at Florida State on Jan. 12.
Star guard Nolan Smith is averaging 24.5 points and 5.8 assists during the win streak, and he scored 28 in an 84-68 win over Boston College on Thursday. "Nolan's playing, he's had an All-American year," Krzyzewski said. "I mean tonight, he was great. Plus he's playing against good people." The Blue Devils showcased their depth on a night when star forward Kyle Singler shot 5 of 14 and scored 14 points. Seth Curry had 20 points and emerging sophomore forward Ryan Kelly added 14, although his streak of consecutive shots made ended at 18. Curry went 5 of 7 on 3-pointers after making four of his previous 19.
St. John's coach Steve Lavin owns a 1/3 career mark against Duke from his days at UCLA from 1996-2003. Every Blue Devils team he faced was ranked sixth or higher, and he's gotten used to facing Top 25 teams over the last month. The Red Storm shot a season-low 33.9 percent in a 77-52 road loss to the No. 21 Hoyas on Wednesday. Lavin, however, is confident his team will regroup. "You always continue to monitor every aspect of your team in terms of confidence," he said. "Whether it's confidence, if you have success, then you worry about complacency. If you struggle, then you're worried about their confidence.
"At this point, just based on the time I've been with them, they've been really good about the way they've come back." St. John's leading scorers Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee have struggled during the last three games. Hardy is averaging 9.0 points and Brownlee 7.7 in that span -- both numbers 5.5 points below their season averages. Duke has won five straight and 12 of its last 13 at MSG, where St. John's is 4-1 this season. The Red Storm's previous sellout there was for a 72-71 win over Duke in the 2002-03 season which marked their last victory in this series.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (DUKE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more.
(266-61 since 1997.) (81.3%, +120.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -238.2
The average score in these games was: Team 71.9, Opponent 64.2 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3, -0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (76-14, +39.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (111-25, +47.6 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (ST JOHNS) - off a road loss by 20 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 67.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.4, Opponent 34.3 (Total first half points scored = 63.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (45-24).
--PLAY ON - A road team (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games.
(48-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +30.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (48-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5
The average score in these games was: Team 78.1, Opponent 73 (Average point differential = +5.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (36.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (126-105).
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*** #845 WASHINGTON (-4, O/U 150) @ #846 WASHINGTON ST ***
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Washington State coach Ken Bone didn't hesitate when asked about the importance of Sunday night's game in Pullman against No. 18 Washington. And it goes beyond the opportunity for the Cougars to take down their rivals and snap a four-game losing streak to the Huskies. "I don't think they're going to drop out of the Top 25 or the Top 20 this season," Bone said of the Huskies. "So I think it would be a huge win for our program." It might be the kind of win the Cougars (14-6, 4-4 Pac-10) need to help solidify a postseason resume that so far lacks any eye-popping victories.
The Cougars missed early in the season, falling 63-58 at home to then-No. 5 Kansas State, before the Wildcats tumbled out of the Top 25. Washington State beat Baylor at a tournament in Honolulu, a victory that's diminished in impressiveness with the Bears' struggles then got routed by an up-and-down Butler in the tournament final. Getting swept on the road at UCLA and USC to open Pac-10 conference play, then losing by two last Saturday night against Arizona at home certainly didn't help the Cougars' case either. Washington State's RPI sits at 69th in the country at the midway point of the Pac-10 season.
"We need this one on our resume," Washington State star Klay Thompson said. If the Cougars intend on finally snapping the Huskies' recent dominance, which included a gutty 59-52 victory in Pullman late last season that was part of Washington's season-ending run, they'll need something better than what Thompson has provided in his career against the Huskies. The Cougars' leading scorer was a combined 4-for-29 shooting in the Cougars' two losses to Washington last season. A year earlier, as a freshman, Thompson went 6 for 18 for a combined 17 points in two losses to the Huskies.
But Washington coach Lorenzo Romar thinks Thompson has more help than ever before, with the development of DeAngelo Casto on the interior and another shooter Faisal Aden on the perimeter. "They have more weapons. You could kind of key in on Klay Thompson and Reggie Moore last year," Romar said. "Now DeAngelo is playing well on the post and Faisal Aden is scoring, he can go out and score 20, 25 points." For most of last season, Washington couldn't figure out how to play away from home, dropping its first five conference road games. Now, the Huskies (15-4, 7-1) are riding a streak of seven wins in their last eight games away from Hec Edmundson Pavilion, their only loss coming two weeks ago at Stanford.
Since starting their run of conference road wins last February with a victory at Stanford, Isaiah Thomas has asserted himself as even more of a leader for the Huskies. Over that seven-game stretch, Thomas is averaging 20.4 points and 7.3 assists. After wrapping up their win over the Cougars in Pullman last year, Thomas turned to the Cougars student section and gave a military-style salute. It's part of his confident, sometimes a little brash, demeanor that he knows Romar would rather have a little more subdued.
"Me, I like to be rowdy and screaming and have my guys ready. Different personalities want different things," Thomas said. "I know coach wants us to be settled and be business-like and be ready for anything." A win on Sunday would give the Huskies their first 8-1 start in conference play in 27 years. "I'm going in there and doing whatever it takes to get a win because this is a huge game," Thomas said. "Like I said, we'll be ready for it and they'll be ready too."
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs vs. the money line (WASHINGTON ST) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(31-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.1%, +23.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -145
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 66.2 (Average point differential = +6.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +9.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (79-43, +9.9 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (WASHINGTON ST) - off a home loss by 3 points or less, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 35.2 (Total first half points scored = 67.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (32-17).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON ST) - off a home loss by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(25-6 since 1997.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.7, Opponent 28.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
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*** #801 MIAMI @ #802 OKLAHOMA CITY (NL) ***
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Kevin Durant and LeBron James are the NBA's most prolific scorers and have enjoyed some epic encounters in the past. Durant, however, doesn't view Oklahoma City's showdown with Miami as a two-man competition. That makes sense, because James could be joined by both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh after the injured stars traveled with the Heat to Oklahoma. After a couple of close calls against inferior opponents, Durant and the Thunder expect to get a major test Sunday in their first meeting of the season with the star-studded Heat. Neither Wade nor Bosh played in Miami's 88-87 win over Detroit on Friday, just the second victory in seven games for the Heat.
Wade sat out with a sore right wrist and Bosh missed his fourth straight game due to a sprained left ankle. James carried the team in their absence, finishing with 39 points, nine assists and eight rebounds, but he may not have to be the lone scoring threat for the Heat (32-14) much longer. An MRI exam on Wade's sore right wrist Saturday showed no structural damage, and Bosh's ankle has improved, allowing both to travel with the team. That could indicate the Heat, who typically do not have injured players join the team for one-game trips, expect to have both back for Sunday's contest.
"Health is No. 1," James said. "We know we have to be healthy." James missed two games of his own more than a week ago because of a sprained left ankle, but the seven-time All-Star has shown no ill effects, averaging 33.8 points and 10.0 rebounds in four games since returning to the lineup. James' ranks second in the NBA with 26.1 points per game. He and Wade make up the league's second-highest scoring tandem at 51.4 per game. Only Durant can top the two-time defending league MVP in those categories. Durant is averaging a league-best 28.8 points, and he and Russell Westbrook are combining for 51.5 per game.
Durant had 40 points in Friday's 124-117 double-overtime win over Washington, while Westbrook added 35 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists. It was the Thunder's second straight overtime victory over a last-place team after defeating Minnesota 118-117 in Wednesday. Durant insisted the Northwest Division-leading Thunder (30-16) weren't looking past the Wizards to this marquee matchup. The two-time All-Star also said this game is more than just a matchup between two of the most exciting players in the game, despite his enthralling history with James.
James totaled 81 points in two games against the Thunder last season for Cleveland, while Durant scored 63. The last time they faced one another, James blocked Durant's shot attempt with 0.9 seconds remaining, handing the Thunder a one-point loss. "I know I've grown as a player," Durant said. "I don't need anybody else to stamp that for me. I know I've grown. I've just got to continue to keep pushing and play within the team." Durant had 68 points against the Heat in 2009-10, as Oklahoma City swept the two-game series after going 1-7 against Miami over the previous four seasons.
The Thunder, 7-1 on national TV, enter play having won a season-best six straight home games and 12 of 14 in Oklahoma City. They also won six consecutive home games last season but haven't earned seven straight home victories since a nine-game run in 2004-05, when the franchise was in Seattle. The Heat have lost four straight road games after winning their previous 13 away from Miami. They haven't lost five in a row on the road since dropping the final nine of 2007-08. "We're going against a great team in Miami," Thunder forward Jeff Green said. "We're going to have our work cut out for us, so we're going to have to bring our A-game."
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (56-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.9, Opponent 93.9 (Average point differential = +10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (49.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (105-72).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(81-40 since 1996.) (66.9%, +37 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.2, Opponent 45.4 (Average first half point differential = +6.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-17).
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*** #803 BOSTON @ #804 LA LAKERS (-2.5, O/U 185) ***
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The NBA finals seemed to go on forever last summer, stretching through seven games over two weeks until the exhausted Los Angeles Lakers finally edged the injury-depleted Boston Celtics with their last gasp in the final quarter. After seven months to recover, the rivals finally are ready to go at each other again. When they meet Sunday on the same Staples Center court where the Lakers won their 16th title and denied the Celtics their 18th, their epic shared history always looms in the background. They've won more than half of the NBA's total championships and met in 12 NBA finals, including two of the past three.
The franchises' generational animosity has been rekindled, as anybody could tell last June. Just don't expect them to acknowledge it in late January. "Playing them doesn't really bring up anything extra," Lakers point guard Derek Fisher said with a shrug. Yet the unfriendliness of this rivalry manifests itself in weird, subtle ways: According to a widespread Internet rumor backed up by photos from the manufacturer, Kevin Garnett is expected to wear a special pair of green, suede-covered shoes with "152-120" embroidered on the tongue. That's the Celtics' overall winning record against the Lakers.
Boston added another spicy element to the rivalry in the offseason by signing Shaquille O'Neal, who won three titles and the NBA finals MVP awards in Los Angeles. Yet the Celtics' 38-year-old backup center is hardly the biggest concern for the Lakers not with both teams struggling to stay consistent during the grind leading up to the All-Star break. Both are coming off embarrassing losses Friday night. The Lakers played horribly at home against lowly Sacramento, while Garnett and Celtics coach Doc Rivers were ejected while Boston scored a season-low 71 points in Phoenix. Garnett escaped suspension for hitting Phoenix's Channing Frye in the groin area, with the NBA saying it isn't looking into the matter but is still reviewing Rivers' actions.
The Celtics, who flew into Los Angeles late Saturday, still lead the Eastern Conference at 35-11, while the Lakers are comfortably in second place in the West at 33-14, well behind overall NBA leader San Antonio. The Lakers went through a 2 1/2-hour practice at their training complex in El Segundo on Saturday, but not due to extra preparation for the Celtics. They usually spend the first part of practice correcting the mistakes of their last game, and that portion was extra-long after Friday's 100-95 loss to the 11-win Kings, likely the most embarrassing night of the Lakers' season.
"We've had some tough losses that kind of jump out at you, but it's just about being more consistent," Bryant said. "(We're) right where we need to be." While the Celtics have showed more consistency than the Lakers this season, Los Angeles hasn't risen to the level of its high profile showcases. Most notably, the Lakers flopped in a 96-80 Christmas loss to Miami, with Bryant lamenting, "It's like these games mean more to our opponents than they do to us."
The Lakers responded in their biggest game of last season, although they still realize they were fortunate to hang on for an 83-79 victory in Game 7, rallying from a 13-point deficit in the second half. It's tough to look back fondly on such an ugly victory, even if it's one of the biggest wins in Lakers history. "It was a tough one, sure, having to come back the way we did and taking it from them the way we did," said Bryant, who infamously went 6 for 24 in Game 7. Lakers coach Phil Jackson said he didn't mention Game 7 or show any clips to his players Saturday, instead using video from Game 6, a blowout Lakers win to illustrate a few defensive concepts he expects his team to embrace.
Fisher doesn't see O'Neal's decision to sign with the Celtics as a betrayal of anything they accomplished with Bryant a decade ago, largely because Boston wasn't those Lakers' biggest rival. The Celtics missed the playoffs during the Lakers' title runs in 2000 and 2001, then lost to New Jersey in the 2002 Eastern Conference finals. "The years we were here, the Celtics' mystique wasn't really where it has got back to," Fisher said. "We basically played them once every nine months, and that was the extent of the rivalry."
O'Neal and Bryant appear to be on friendly terms now, the jealousies of the past decade largely ignored publicly, aside from an occasional sarcastic comment. When asked after Game 7 what a fifth title meant to him, Bryant immediately noted he has one more ring than Shaq. Although O'Neal's No. 34 jersey is likely to hang alongside Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's No. 33 and Wilt Chamberlain's No. 13 in the Staples Center rafters, the Lakers don't begrudge him returning in green. "I don't think it's too weird," Bryant said. "I don't really hold too much significance to the fact that he's playing with the Celtics. I don't think Lakers fans as a whole are. I don't think it's that big of a deal."
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(36-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.8%, +26.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187
The average score in these games was: Team 103.6, Opponent 93.1 (Average point differential = +10.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, 0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-3, +17.8 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (137-46, +6.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
(47-8 since 1996.) (85.5%, +31.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -193.1
The average score in these games was: Team 101.5, Opponent 90.8 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1, +4.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3, +10.2 units).
--PLAY ON - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game.
(28-7 since 1996.) (80.0%, +21 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100
The average score in these games was: Team 94.2, Opponent 90.2 (Average point differential = +4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2, +4.9 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more.
(34-10 since 1996.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (35-11)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 110.2, Opponent 103.7 (Average point differential = +6.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (48.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-10).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (BOSTON) - an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a combined score of 160 points or less.
(47-18 since 1996.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 95.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.4, Opponent 47.7 (Total first half points scored = 98.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13).
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*** #805 CLEVELAND @ #806 ORLANDO (-17, O/U 204) ***
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Cleveland coach Byron Scott is less worried about the historical significance of his team's current losing stretch and more concerned about finding a way to end the skid. The lowly Cavaliers look to avoid setting a single-season club record with their 20th consecutive loss Sunday night against the Orlando Magic. Even with a rematch against former favorite son LeBron James and the Heat on Monday in Miami, Cleveland (8-38) has no reason to look ahead while trying for its first victory since beating New York 109-102 in overtime Dec. 18.
The Cavaliers tied a single-season franchise record with their 19th straight loss, and 29th in 30 games after falling 117-103 against Denver on Friday. The NBA record for most consecutive defeats in one season is 23 shared by Vancouver (1995-96) and Denver (1997-98). "I can care less about the record books as far as that is concerned," Scott told the Cavaliers' official website. "The one record I hope we start to do is 48 solid minutes of basketball. Not 36 or 24. Let's see if we can put a streak together where we can play 48 straight minutes of good basketball."
That's been tough for a Cleveland team that's already lost starting center Anderson Varejao to a season-ending ankle injury and could be without guard Mo Williams a seventh straight game with a strained hip. Trying to string together four solid quarters the next two nights against Orlando (30-17) and Miami won't be easy as the Cavaliers try to avoid a 23rd straight road loss. Still, players are doing their best to remain optimistic. "I just hate losing," said forward J.J. Hickson, who had 24 points and 14 rebounds Friday. "It's a tough season for us and hopefully we can turn it around." That could be difficult against the Magic, who will be trying for a fifth consecutive win over the Cavaliers.
Orlando shot 53.0 percent and outscored Cleveland by an average 13.0 points while winning the teams' two previous meetings this season. Antawn Jamison, who had 20 points with 12 rebounds against Denver, has totaled 43 points against Orlando in 2010-11. Though the Magic have fared well against Cleveland with or without James lately, they hope to play better than in Friday's 99-90 loss at Chicago. Despite 40 points and 15 rebounds from All-Star Dwight Howard, the Magic shot 41.0 percent and allowed 34 third-quarter points while falling to 5-5 since a season-high nine-game winning streak.
Possibly making matters a little tougher, Orlando could be without point guard Jameer Nelson after he played just eight minutes Friday because of soreness in his right knee. If Nelson can't play, Gilbert Arenas could start. "I sort of worry about the things that I can control and I don't worry about the things that I can't control. (Nelson) will either be able to play or he won't," coach Stan Van Gundy told the Magic's official website. "Our defense worries me. As far as who will be healthy enough to play, they'll tell me and then we'll play the guys who are healthy." Though Arenas has averaged 7.4 points off the bench over the last 13 games, he scored a team-high 22 with 11 assists in Orlando's 110-95 win at Cleveland on Dec. 28.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (CLEVELAND) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(48-18 since 1996.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 56.3, Opponent 45.1 (Average first half point differential = +11.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CLEVELAND) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
(111-52 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +53.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.5, Opponent 50.5 (Total first half points scored = 100)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (63-28).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-159).
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*** #807 DENVER @ #808 PHILADELPHIA (-2, O/U 208.5) ***
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The Philadelphia 76ers have taken advantage of the absence of Carmelo Anthony in two straight wins over the Denver Nuggets. They won't be so fortunate as to avoid the star forward again Sunday night. Anthony will try to lead the Nuggets to a fifth straight victory when the NBA's highest scoring team visits the 76ers. Denver (28-18) has blown leads of nine and 12 points in consecutive losses to Philadelphia (20-26). The Nuggets fell 95-89 at home in the most recent meeting Dec. 26 as the 76ers closed on a 25-7 run. Anthony sat out both defeats and has missed four of Denver's last eight games versus Philadelphia. The Nuggets are 1/3 when Anthony is out and 8-3 when he has played against the 76ers.
He's helped Denver match its second-longest win streak of the season. The Nuggets, averaging 107.9 points, have put together big first quarters in winning the first three games of a five-game trip against losing teams. Denver has averaged 31.0 points in the opening periods of those wins, scoring exactly that many in a 117-103 victory over Cleveland on Friday. Anthony finished with 33 points, seven rebounds and five assists. "Our starts have been good on this trip," coach George Karl said. "We've gotten into the games mentally pretty well." The coach has been happy with his team's focus amid constant questions about the trade rumors surrounding Anthony. The Nuggets have won eight of 10 after losing three straight.
"We have kept it away from the basketball court," Karl said. "There is an energy that is drained from press conferences, going to different cities and being asked the same questions and reading the same stories. "We had a bad stretch in early January, but we have bounced back. We're starting to play as good as we've played all year." Center Nene returned after missing a win at Detroit on Wednesday with a strained right calf, but played only nine minutes. He sat out the second half as a precautionary measure, the team said.
The 76ers are looking to bounce back from a 99-94 loss to Memphis on Friday. Philadelphia went up by 21 in the third quarter but suffered its sixth defeat when leading by 10 or more this season. "The common denominator for these losses is just miscues," forward Elton Brand said. "We turned the ball over and it was very uncharacteristic of how we've been playing lately. It seemed like we got past the point where we were done losing leads, especially 21-point leads."
The 76ers, who had a three-game win streak snapped, committed 11 of their 22 turnovers in the fourth quarter. They are among the league's best teams in that department with 13.6 per game, and had more than 15 once in their previous 14 games before Friday. "You can't play through those turnovers," coach Doug Collins said. "25 points off turnovers. You can't play through that. You just can't do it." The Nuggets have won six straight over Eastern Conference teams since last month's loss to the 76ers, who are 5-2 at home against the West.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.8
The average score in these games was: Team 97.4, Opponent 98 (Total points scored = 195.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (61-32).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (DENVER) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.
(94-27 since 1996.) (77.7%, +43.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -186.1
The average score in these games was: Team 102, Opponent 94.3 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-9, +16.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (45-14, +22.1 units).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(32-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 48.7 (Total first half points scored = 97.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (62-31).
--PLAY ON - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(40-15 since 1996.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (41-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 97.2 (Average point differential = +3.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (39.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-10).
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*** #809 DETROIT @ #810 NEW YORK (NL) ***
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Amare Stoudemire has revitalized the New York Knicks by giving the franchise an All-Star starter for the first time in nearly two decades. Now the club is hoping he won't miss his first action of the season. It's unclear whether Stoudemire will be available for the Knicks on Sunday night when they host the Detroit Pistons, who have major personnel issues of their own. Stoudemire has quickly emerged as the leader in his first season with New York (24-22), averaging team highs of 26.0 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. He's set to become the first Knick to start in the All-Star game since Patrick Ewing in 1992.
More importantly, Stoudemire has not missed a game this season after undergoing six knee surgeries in eight years, a major reason why Phoenix was willing to part with him. The power forward, though, left Friday's 111-102 loss at Atlanta in the third quarter when the Hawks' Marvin Williams fell into the back of his knees. Stoudemire limped off the court but soon returned, and there was no X-ray taken. "It's a little sore now but we'll see how it feels (Saturday)," said Stoudemire, who had 27 points but only three rebounds. His loss would obviously be a major blow for a Knicks team that has dropped seven of nine.
New York will be without reserve forward Shawne Williams, suspended one game Saturday for throwing punches during an altercation with Marvin Williams. The incident began when the Atlanta player pushed him in the back. "I don't know what happened, really," Shawne Williams said. "I was basically protecting myself. I was coming across half-court. He bumped me, I bumped him, and he (hit) me in the back of the head....I wasn't swinging at him, I was just trying to protect myself."
Detroit (17-30) played without Richard Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey and Ben Wallace in an 88-87 loss at Miami on Friday. The Pistons led by as many as seven in the fourth quarter. "We're better than our record," coach John Kuester said. "What we have to do is continue to play the rest of the season this way and hopefully good things will happen." Hamilton has missed 10 straight games and was out Friday with the flu. Stuckey sat out with a bruised right shoulder suffered Wednesday, while Wallace was not with the team due to a family matter. The status of all three for Sunday is uncertain.
Ben Gordon had 21 points and second-year forward Austin Daye scored 19 in his first start since Nov. 17, though he missed a contested dunk off a lob on the final play. "I'm so proud of our guys," Kuester told the Pistons' official website. "They're playing so hard and trying to do things the right way." Tracy McGrady, averaging 16.0 points in his last three games, will return to New York for the first time since his 24-game stint with the Knicks last season. New York won 125-116 in double overtime at Detroit on Nov. 28 in the teams' lone meeting of 2010-11. Stoudemire had 37 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists while Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince combined for 60 points.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams (NEW YORK) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0
The average score in these games was: Team 98.5, Opponent 94.4 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (90-74).
--PLAY ON - Favorites (NEW YORK) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 111.2, Opponent 101.6 (Average point differential = +9.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (38.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (61-32).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%).
(66-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.0%, +36.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 49.4 (Average first half point differential = -0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (129-80).
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Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about, call us toll-free in the office and start winning today, you’ll be real glad you did” -Stan 'The Man!
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*** #811 NEW ORLEANS @ #812 PHOENIX (PK, O/U 195.5) ***
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Heading to Phoenix, the New Orleans Hornets need to make sure there are no lingering effects after their longest winning streak of the season ended. Coming off their first loss in three weeks, the Hornets look to bounce back while trying to avoid a third straight defeat to the Suns on Sunday night. New Orleans (31-17) was in position to set a franchise record with an 11th straight victory Saturday, but fell 102-96 at surging Sacramento. The Hornets, 12-3 this month, have not lost back-to-back games since Jan. 5-7. After shooting a season-high 62.2 percent in Wednesday's 112-103 win at Golden State, New Orleans made just 43.2 percent of its shots Saturday en route to its second loss in nine road games.
"I just thought we had this mindset that we were just going to win 11 (consecutive) by showing up," first-year coach Monty Williams told the Hornets' official website. "When you win this many games you have a target on your back. We've just got to turn the page, but not without learning some of these lessons." If New Orleans is to bounce back, it's going to need to play better defense than it did Saturday night. The Hornets allowed Sacramento to shoot 50.0 percent and outscore them 52-30 in the paint despite 21 points from power forward David West and 15 from center Emeka Okafor.
In its last two contests, the Hornets have allowed the Warriors and Kings to shoot a combined 52.7 percent. New Orleans also has struggled defensively at Phoenix of late. The Suns averaged 122.0 points and shot 56.4 percent while winning their last two home games versus New Orleans, which has dropped four of five overall in the series. Phoenix (21-24), however, has not had to face All-Star guard Chris Paul in the last three meetings because of various injuries. Paul has averaged 26.8 points and 11.4 assists in his last 12 games versus Phoenix. Despite posting their third-lowest scoring total of the season, the Suns snapped a three-game skid with an 88-71 win over Boston on Friday.
Reserve forward Marcin Gortat had career highs of 19 points with 17 rebounds while Steve Nash added 13 points with 10 assists. However, it was a strong defensive effort that paced the Suns to their fourth win in five home games. Phoenix allowed its fewest points this season and held the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics to 34.2 percent shooting, the lowest against the Suns in 2010-11. The Suns, three games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, have held three opponents to fewer than 75 points this season for the first time since 2002-03.
The latest effort has the club excited about their potential to not only compete, but beat some of the league's top teams. "It's great for our confidence and at the same time, it just lets us know that we're very capable of playing at a high level," Vince Carter told the Suns' official website. "This team is capable of being in the playoffs." Carter has totaled 39 points and shot 13 of 27 the last two games after combining for 26 on 10-of-40 shooting the previous four contests. The veteran swingman has averaged 27.3 points his last 12 contests against the Hornets.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game.
(36-6 since 1996.) (85.7%, +26.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 102.1, Opponent 94.4 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0, +11 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-1, +18.8 units).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +26.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -157.5
The average score in these games was: Team 101.6, Opponent 93.6 (Average point differential = +8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (77-20, +33.9 units).
--PLAY ON - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team.
(34-10 since 1996.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 99.8, Opponent 94.3 (Average point differential = +5.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (53.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (PHOENIX) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a combined score of 160 points or less.
(35-11 since 1996.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.4
The average score in these games was: Team 105.1, Opponent 98.3 (Total points scored = 203.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 27 (58.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).
(34-11 since 1996.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.1, Opponent 45.8 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(37-14 since 1996.) (72.5%, +21.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.2, Opponent 46.3 (Total first half points scored = 93.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).
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*** #813 UTAH @ #814 GOLDEN STATE (NL) ***
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The banged-up Utah Jazz overcame the absence of Deron Williams to end their longest losing streak in more than three years. The star point guard may not be needed again if his team can get another outstanding effort from his replacement. Williams will be a game-time decision when Utah tries to end a five-game road skid Sunday night against the struggling Golden State Warriors. Earl Watson made his first start of the season Friday in place of Williams and had a career-high 13 assists in a 108-100 win over Minnesota. That snapped a six-game skid for the Jazz (28-19), their longest slide since dropping six in a row Dec. 4-14, 2007.
"When you get easy baskets in transition and get layups, it gives the guys confidence," Watson said. "It builds a rhythm and builds chemistry and makes everything easy." While Williams sat out with a hyperextended right wrist suffered Wednesday, Watson's energy even wore out his teammates. "He got a lot of us tired a little bit, but it's for a good cause," said forward Paul Millsap, who scored a game-high 30 points. The Jazz and Warriors have split two meetings this season and Watson played sparingly in both, totaling two points. Williams has averaged 26.5 points in the two matchups.
Williams is among a number of hurting Jazz. Millsap has a severely bruised thumb while guard Raja Bell has shoulder and neck problems, although he will be able to play against the Warriors. Center Mehmet Okur won't travel with the team to California after straining his lower back in the first half Friday. "It's been a tough few weeks for us," Millsap said. "It just feels good to get back on the winning side. We've got a lot of positive attitudes in here and everybody feels good with this win." The Warriors aren't feeling nearly as good. Golden State (19-27) lost its fourth straight Friday, blowing a 16-point lead and falling 121-113 in overtime to Charlotte.
Former Warrior Stephen Jackson's tying 3-pointer with 0.6 seconds left in regulation sent the game to an extra period, during which Golden State was outscored 20-12. The Warriors fell to 0-3 on a season-high eight-game homestand. "Being young, inexperienced, understanding how important every possession is, you don't take quick shots or bad shots," coach Keith Smart said. "You have to finish plays around the basket." Monta Ellis is fourth in the league with 25.7 points per game, but he's averaged 14.8 in 14 career meetings with Utah, his second-lowest average against any team. His 37.4 field-goal percentage in those contests represents his lowest versus any opponent.
Stephen Curry had 27 points Friday and has averaged 25.4 in his last five. He missed the Warriors' 108-95 loss to the Jazz on Dec. 13 because of a sprained ankle, but scored 20 in an 85-78 win over Utah on Nov. 5. The 78 points allowed in that contest are the fewest given up by the Warriors since a 91-78 win over the Jazz on Nov. 25, 2006. Golden State is allowing 107.0 points per game, second most in the NBA. Utah forward Andrei Kirilenko had his best game in nearly six years with a season-high 27 points Friday. He hadn't scored that many since a 28-point performance March 19, 2005. The Jazz have won four of the last five meetings with the Warriors.
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game).
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.9, Opponent 49.7 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-37).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games.
(25-6 since 1996.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.7
The average score in these games was: Team 117, Opponent 102.8 (Average point differential = +14.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).